Two hundred and three years after David Melville patented the gas streetlight, and oil prices are lit up once again today. Prices are rallying for a third consecutive day, and for a fifth consecutive week – the longest streak since last May. WTI has now leapt into forty-dollardom to boot, with an impending prompt month…
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What Happens When Oil Hits $50?
The major beneficiary of the 54 percent jump in oil prices from the lows of $26 per barrel is the U.S. shale oil industry, which will utilize this rise to ramp up production and repair balance sheets. But any move above $45 per barrel will likely reverse all this good luck: The drop in production…
The Current Oil Price Rally Is Reaching Its Limits
Oil prices have climbed by about 50 percent from their February lows, topping $40 per barrel. But the rally could be reaching its limits, at least temporarily, as persistent oversupply and the prospect of new shale production caps any potential price increase. U.S. oil production has steadily lost ground over the past two quarters, with…
Can A Divided OPEC Agree On Anything In Doha?
Only two weeks remain until the fated meeting between the OPEC countries and their counterparts from outside the organization, scheduled to take place in the Qatari capital of Doha on the coast of the Persian Gulf. The meeting could very well determine the direction oil futures will take, at least until the next OPEC meeting…
$120 Oil As Soon As 2018?
Today, I’m going to try and tackle the reasoning for my ‘wild’ predictions for oil reaching triple digits by the end of 2017. While I am nearly alone in these forecasts, they are not just pulled out of space, but with deep regard for the fundamental supply/demand picture that everyone mostly agrees upon, combined with…
Why Oil Prices Will Rise And Many Pundits Will Be Caught By Surprise
I follow oil pretty closely given our exposure. As such, I get frustrated with many press and news show accounts of the commodity. It gets worse when the pundits and writers should know better. Frequently inexact terminology leads to misconceptions and sometimes I see outright falsehoods that completely distort the truth. As a former oil…
Oil Prices Up On Weaker Dollar, Declining Production
One hundred and nineteen years to the day after the first Boston marathon, and oil markets are running higher once more. Looking beyond Doha disappointments, the market is finding solace in current supply outages, while hoping to see market balancing picking up pace going forward. Hark, here are five things to consider in oil markets…
Why Oil Won’t Crash Following Doha Failure
The Doha meeting turned out to be a complete wash, but still, the rumour and expectation leading up to the meeting produced a massive rebound in oil prices. And while logic says that the markets should now crash because Doha failed to give us an output freeze, logic doesn’t typically rule this roost. A downtrend…
Iran’s Dilemma: Too Much Oil And Not Enough Ships
Late last week, just ahead of the Doha meeting, we reported that Iran’s existing oil tanker armada, which until recently had been on anchor next to the Iranian coast and which according to Windward data was storing as much as 50 million barrels offshore, had finally started to move. The reason, as Bloomberg reported, was…
What Iron Ore Futures Tell Us About Oil Prices
With commodity prices falling precipitously during the last 2 years it has been a hard time for both commodity market analysts and commodity exporting countries’ finance ministers. Expectations of prices moving even lower are still elevated especially for oil and other energy resources. Nevertheless, there was a bright spot recently: a range of metals prices…
Has the Oil Price Rally Gone Too Far?
Oil speculators are growing more confident that prices are gaining ground on the back of rising demand and shrinking supply. U.S. gasoline demand is at a record high for this time of year, with the four-week consumptionrate for gasoline above 9.3 million barrels per day (mb/d). That is important because the summer months typically see…
Oil Prices Jump To Six-Month High
Oil prices surged to their highest levels in six months on Wednesday as the Fed left interest rates unchanged. WTI jumped by 2.8 percent to $45.29 per barrel and Brent climbed by 3.17 percent to $47.19 per barrel. Those are the highest prices so far in 2016 and the oil markets continue to bet on…
Oil Refinery 